How many years do you think until it’s borderline impossible to find a working original Xbox?

[NFSfreak]

I know original Xbox’s aren’t the most reliable and nothing last forever but what’s your estimate/prediction on how many years it takes for the og to be extinct?

[Acidmank]

Wile I wont but a number on it I will say much longer than you would imagine.    Enthusiasts like us will keep it living...

[Mu.]

Several generations from now, perhaps.

[nikeymikey]

30 minutes ago, Acidmank said:

Wile I wont but a number on it I will say much longer than you would imagine.    Enthusiasts like us will keep it living...

This, in a nutshell is why there will Xbox's running smoothly for many years to come. The same question was asked on Reddit earlier, I think it might be the same OP.

[JackedLynx]

On 8/1/2022 at 4:54 AM, Acidmank said:

Wile I wont but a number on it I will say much longer than you would imagine.    Enthusiasts like us will keep it living...

Exactly, especially with people who buy broken ones, fix them and sell them. Such as myself. I don't do it to make money, i do it since it's my hobby.

DVD Drives though, those will become very hard to find in working order eventually. i have so damn many broken Thompsons i don't even know what to do with. I'd say Philips/Samsungs will be the ones you'd find working when they get uncommon.

[corona2222]

24 million OG units sold world wide 

most people would have got rid of OG when they upgraded to 360 (84m units).

A lot of working, obsolete or broken OG would have been thrown in the trash,
"40 million tons of e-waste every year, worldwide. That’s like throwing 800 laptops every second" (source)
noting some OG would be recovered and fixed as other posters said above however small to dent stats

about 6 years xbox manufacture discontinued in 2006
most have been destroyed by clock cap leak after 10 years, 20% hard disks fail after 4 years and dvd drive dying after 5 years. (all depending on use) 

electronics failure rate chart (source)

notice a lot of failures at release, a period of reliability, increasing failures end of life from wear out. I would say based on the failure stats above we are already at the end of that chart...except we're still finding fully working unopened OG's which is rare and amazing. (mostly v1.6) 

for an accurate answer to OP's question we would need more stats to work out how far along the chart timeline and survey what the current second hand market is like for OG's

might be interesting to compile some stats on this forum:
how many OG's people have bought in the past year, which are:
a) fully working unopened
b) partially working unopened
c) fully working, fixed
d) partially working, some fix history
e) DOA

Definitely a sliding scale towards e)

A good thing is old tech lasts longer than newer electronics, its also easier to fix. As long as there is a hobby community there will be working OG's long past Game DVD's start to rot (20 yearsish - i.e. now ) 

I'm sure there will an xbox classic (emulator) released and ignite interest in OG hardware - no doubt there will be mini to maxi mods 

But as others said theres always going to be hobbies to ensure working OG's can be found 

Edited August 4, 2022 by corona2222

[RetroEmulationNation]

There's still lots of other lower selling consoles like the Saturn, Dreamcast, and 3DO in circulation.

I estimate at least 50% of the surviving OG Xbox consoles still alive today are already in the hands of fans and enthusiasts who would know how to take care of them and take care to recap them every few years.

I believe the console can last another 20-50 years if properly taken care of.

[zzattack]

6 hours ago, corona2222 said:

interesting to compile some stats on this forum:
how many OG's people have bought in the past year, which are:
a) fully working unopened
b) partially working unopened
c) fully working, fixed
d) partially working, some fix history
e) DOA

Definitely a sliding scale towards e)

Not exact numbers, but close. Didn't keep a record since in the end, they are all fixable.

Unopened, working OOB: about 10
Opened before, but still working: about 7

Unopened, slight defects (front panel buttons/clock cap damage/poor DVD):  3
Opened, slight defects: 4

Unopened, not working at all: just 1
Opened, not working at all: just 2

 

The 'not working at all' were actually easily fixed by capacitor replacements. In fact, the "slight defects" are more work to fix because it usually involves trace repair due to supercap leakage. 
Two DVD drives ended up having no laser light at all. Some others required slight pot meter tuning.